The early childhood workforce is shrinking, and credentials are part of the answer

 We finally have the data. The early childhood workforce is shrinking, and credentials are part of the answer. 

Until now, we’ve never had a clear, multi-state picture of what’s happening to the early childhood workforce. New research changes that—and the findings demand attention.

By analyzing state workforce registry data across eight states (Illinois, Maine, Montana, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee) we now have one of the clearest pictures yet of who is working in early childhood programs, how long they stay, and what factors are associated with remaining in the field.

The workforce is shrinking, fast.

In 2023, the eight participating state registries included more than 205,000 early childhood workforce members in licensed programs. By 2025, that number had fallen to just under 116,000. Only 56% of the 2023 workforce remained active two years later.

That’s not turnover. That’s a near collapse.

The decline was sharpest among center-based teachers and assistant teachers—the educators who are most directly responsible for children’s learning and development every single day. When these educators leave, children lose relationships that matter. Programs lose institutional knowledge. Families lose stability. And the cycle of instability continues.

One-third of this workforce is under 30, and 38% entered the field with a high school diploma as their highest credential. This is a workforce that is young, under-resourced, and being asked to do extraordinarily complex work, often for low wages that don’t reflect that complexity.

But the data also show us something important: credentials matter.

Across the eight states we studied, educators who held early childhood-specific credentials or degrees were significantly more likely to remain in the field. Those with a Child Development Associate (CDA) credential showed retention rates of 65%. Those with an early childhood associate degree reached 70%. Compare that to educators with only a high school diploma, where retention rates were considerably lower.

This isn’t about gatekeeping. It’s about investment. When we invest in educators—giving them the knowledge, recognition, and career pathway that comes with a credential—they are more likely to stay. That’s good for children, for programs, and for the families who depend on stable care.

The CDA deserves particular attention here. Unlike a four-year degree, it can be completed relatively quickly and at lower cost. It provides a meaningful entry point into the profession

while building foundational knowledge in child development. And the data suggest it works, both as a retention tool and as a stepping stone to further education.

State workforce registries are an underutilized asset.

One of the most important, and underappreciated, findings is what it reveals about data infrastructure. State workforce registries, when well-designed and consistently used, can tell us exactly what is happening to this workforce over time. Yet most states are not regularly using these systems to track turnover, analyze trends, or even evaluate the impact of their investments.

That has to change. You cannot solve a problem you cannot measure.

What policymakers, employers, and funders should take away:

This research points to three clear actions.

1. Expand access to entry-level credentials like the CDA through scholarships, apprenticeships, and integration with career pathways and compensation systems.

2. Strengthen state workforce registry systems so that every state has the data infrastructure needed to monitor workforce stability and make smarter investments.

3. Target higher education investments toward program directors and leadership roles, where the evidence suggests the return on investment is highest.

The early childhood workforce is essential infrastructure, for families who need reliable care, for employers who need workers who can consistently show up, and for state economies that depend on both. The data are now clear. The question is whether we will act.

Thank you to my co-authors @Hanna Junus and @Alexandra Daro, to the eight state registries that made this research possible, and to @BECI and the @David and Lucile Packard Foundation for their generous support of this work